How Effective is Monetary Policy?
Friday, March 10th, 2006Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the latest version of its “Employment Situation Survey,†a report that regularly provides information on how many jobs are “created†in the economy. The new report explains that employers added 243,000 non-farm payroll jobs in February, and the unemployment rate remained at about 4.8 percent.
The survey also indicates that average hourly earnings have been rising a bit. In fact, according to the last twelve surveys, the U.S. economy has added about 2 million jobs during the last year (from February 2005 to February 2006). What does this have to do with monetary policy?
As explained in today’s Wall Street Journal (subscription required for full article):
The Fed has raised interest rates 14 straight times in quarter-point increments to 4.5%, and have stressed in recent weeks that future moves will be dependent on economic data.
As the story goes, the Federal Reserve is supposed to be able to “cool off†the economy by raising the Fed-Funds target. The problem is inflation. For example, if too many jobs are created too fast, and/or if wages rise too fast, prices could rise throughout the economy. Pushing interest rates upward is supposed to reverse this situation, thus heading off inflation.
So, here are my questions for discussion:
If monetary policy really works, how is that wages have been rising and more employers have been hiring even though the Fed has been raising rate targets every quarter (for the last 14 in a row)?
Is it wise to have a national policy that, essentially, penalizes people for improving their economic situation?
NM
