It would sure be interesting to take a look at evolution of the “cone of error” and the actual prices.

As in the post, thinly traded, but by the end, the volume traded picked up a bit.

Nice post. On my way to my evacuation site, I kept wondering about the existence of prediction or betting markets on storms, since these markets aggregate the information from various sources, weighing the various hurricane prediction models by past predictive performance, and taking other information, sometimes private or insider information, into account.

So, it was good to see such betting markets are there.

I will watch for them before my next evacutaion plans are made.

-MC