Reports of our demise have been greatly exaggerated
We all understand that political instability can bring about economic instability and economic woes can breed political woes. We certainly saw the latter with Carter’s loss to Reagan in 1980, with Bush I’s loss to Clinton in 1992, and McCain’s loss to Obama this last year. And right now, the shrinkage in the national economy is as bad as it was in 1983, in the early years of Reagan, years that were not filled with gloom and doom. But here is a story that would be funny if not for the seriousness of the dire predictions involved. Associated Press writer Mike Eckel reports here in the Detroit Freepress that Igor Panarin, the dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s school for diplomats and Russian TV talking head, is predicting that the US will collapse in 2010. Wait, his predictions go a bit further. He goes on to suggest that the US will break apart into six nations and Alaska will go back under Russian control.
And the cause of our demise? Our moral decline, as seen by our school shootings, our large prison population and the number of gay men in the US.
Why is it now that the US collapses instead of our Civil War? Or our many other recessions and panics, such as the one we call the “Great Depression?” Or in 1968 when 2 of our most important political leaders, Martin Luther King, Jr. and Bobby Kennedy, were assisinated and when cities across this country were plagued by a series of race riots and war protests? Or every year after that unitl 1975 when we finally pulled out from that conflict? Or what about 1973, when we faced the Arab Oil Embargo and Nixon was being investigated by Congress for involvement in the Watergate breakin?
The point is our nation has faced tough times in the past and will undoubtedly go through tough in the future. But we have a system that provides for disagreement and for venting of strong disagreement, especially with the likes of Chris Matthews and O”Reilly of Cable and Limbaugh on the Radio, and Matt Drudge and others on the web. We bend some, but we do not break.
One thing that makes us flexible is our economic system that allocates resources based on prices that result from the competitive bargaining between buyers and sellers, rather than the direction of politicians. It looks as if this is something that the current administration has not yet come to appreciate.
What makes the predictions of the Russian leaders cause for concern, though, is that they seem to be underestimating the US. Miscalculating. And the problem with miscalculation, especially when made by leaders who have been very opportunistic in the past and may continue to be opportunistic, is that it can lead to very horrible wars. Wars are almost always the result of miscalculation. Countries invade others when they think it will be a walk in the park, when they are ready to pronounce “Mission Accomplished!” shortly after they have begun. When leaders miscalculate, they often find themselves in protracted conflicts for which they are often unprepared, or should I say, their citizens are unprepared. If the Russians think we are on the brink of collapse, and just a little push from them will push us over the edge, they might get the idea that they can attack and defeat us. Miscalculation, I am afraid, leads to wars with many losers and no winners. We can only pray that Russian Prime Minister Putin will listen to someone other than Dean Panarin.
MC
