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Category Archives: Prediction Markets

This past November, 26th, I posted the following short piece to this blog. For several years, I and others have pointed to Intrade.com as a premier forecasting tool, a betting market or prediction market.  Take a look at this blog’s archives in the category “Prediction Markets.”  Intrade has been far more accurate at predicting elections […]

The Nobel prizes are announced every year in October.  Earlier today, the announcement was made that Shinya Yamanaka of Kyoto University John B. Gurdon of the University of Cambridge in England won this year’s Nobel prize in Medicine of Physiology for their pioneering work on stem cells. Last year, Christopher Sims and Thomas Sargent shared the […]

  Disposable diapers have almost completely replaced cloth nappies in the U.S. and in many other developed nations.  There seems to be a high likelihood of a price increase in these convenient diapers after a recent explosion in Himeji, Japan, shut down a Nippon Shokubai chemical plant as we see in this article from ABC.  […]

In just a few days, on June 19th, some Americans, but not all, will celebrate a holiday often called “Juneteenth.”  A more proper and descriptive name for the holiday is “Emancipation Day.”  Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation in September, and it was to take effect the following January.  The reason for the June 19th celebration […]

If you go to the left-side menu on this page and scroll down below the archives, you will come across a list of categories, and there you will see that there are now 10 posts on prediction markets.   Here, I just want to point out a May, 2008 video of John Stossel from ABC’s 20/20 program […]

Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Board of Governors of Federal Reserve, states in this article that the    “…stock market rally that began last summer was fueled by the Fed’s efforts which improved U.S. economic activity.” The question is why has the stock market gone up in response to Fed monetary policies of increasing […]

James Glassman has this really insightful article on economic stimulus in the March issue (now online) of Commentary magazine (at commentarymagazine.com).  Readers of Bastiat’s Bastions will note that Mr. Glassman is also a fan of Bastiat and references the same story “What is seen and what is unseen,” that we have mentioned here repeatedly, starting […]

If you haven’t heard, the Cubbies have a pretty good team this year. They’ve clinched a birth to the playoffs, and are predicted to do some damage in the playoffs. (Or wait – is that the fans that are predicted to do some damage? I’m getting ahead of myself.) Read this article from the Chicago […]

A picture of the price of the Louisiana contract. The prices are the squares (right axis) and the bars are the volume (left axis). See the previous post for some details, but the basic idea is the price of the contract reflects the probability that the hurricane would make landfall in Louisiana and be at […]

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